Glenn Tinturin’s Blog

Wow, is it ever foggy here today in Lake Arrowhead! That’s what we get for being up in the clouds. When you are a mile high, whenever there are low clouds over the city below, we are literally in the clouds. So, if you are planning on driving up or down the mountain, I’d advise you to plan your trip durning daylight. Driving through fog at night is even less fun. For more on local weather conditions, real estate in Lake Arrowhead, and other information, go to our ArrowheadRealEstate.com website. It’s full of all kinds of helpful information.

It’s a beautiful day in Lake Arrowhead where the Southern California weather is starting to kick into gear. The skies are bright blue, the air is fresh, and the birds are singing like it’s spring. Oh ya, it is spring!

Please enjoy this little video of Lake Arrowhead. And, if you have any questions, please check out our Lake Arrowhead Real Estate Information Website or call Glenn Tinturin at 909-336-6733.

Calif. median home price - February 09: $247,590(Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. highest median home price by C.A.R. region February 09: Santa Barbara So. Coast $715,000 (Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. lowest median home price by C.A.R. region February 09: High Desert $121,970(Source: C.A.R.)
Calif. First-time Buyer Affordability Index - Fourth Quarter 08: 59 percent (Source: C.A.R.)
Mortgage rates - week ending 4/9/09 30-yr. fixed: 4.87% Fees/points: 0.7% 15-yr. fixed: 4.54% Fees/points: 0.7% 1-yr. adjustable: 4.83% Fees/points: 0.5% (Source: Freddie Mac)  

Californians may face water rationing this summer. In response, the California Landscape Contractors Association has provided the following tip for use by homeowners and businesses: Water trees first. If trees are lost, it increases the surrounding temperature, making everything hotter. Trees also are expensive to replace.  Many surrounding plants depend on them, because trees offer shade and protection for some lawns and other plants that may not survive the hot sun without them. In addition, trees often are homes, shelter and/or food to birds and animals, which could possibly die if they perish. For tips relating to Lake Arrowhead in particular, visit our Lake Arrowhead Real Estate Information Website or call Glenn Tinturin at 909-336-6733.

California Association of Realtors:

Last week President Barack Obama signed the Omnibus Appropriations Bill into law. A provision of this law permanently bans banks and other financial institutions from engaging in the practice of selling real estate by preventing the Treasury Department and Federal Reserve from creating rules that would allow these activities.

This has been a long and hard fought battle that began eight years ago when the Bush Administration sought to expand the authority of national banks to engage in real estate development and other real estate related practices. This expansion would have ultimately led to unlicensed national bank employees being able to engage in the same practices that you are required by state law to be licensed for.

This is a huge win for REALTORS®! Thank you to all of you who fought hard over the past several years to ensure this victory.

The Pending Home Sales Index, a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in January, on a national average fell 7.7% to 80.4 from a downwardly revised reading of 87.1 in December, and is 6.4% below January 2008 when it was 85.9. In the West, however, the index rose 2.4% to 103.6 and is 13.5% higher than January 2008. As for the rest of the nation, the PHSI in the Northeast dropped 12.7% to 57.8 in January and is 19.7% below a year ago. In the Midwest the index declined 9.2% to 72.6 and is 13.8% below January 2008. The index in the South fell 11.9% to 82.2 in January and is 9.1% below a year ago.

RISMEDIA, February 26, 2009-The Economic Stimulus Bill signed recently by President Obama expands the opportunity to benefit from a reverse mortgage to even more American seniors. The new bill will raise the HECM loan limits to 150% of the Freddie Mac loan limit. Currently, that would create a HECM loan limit of $625,500, helping older Americans access even more of the equity available in their homes to augment retirement incomes or offset investment losses.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Morgan Stanley, and Bank of America Corp. announced they are halting foreclosures through March 6, while President Obama works out the details of his housing plan.  Citigroup said it will halt foreclosures until the administration has completed the details of the program or March 12, whichever is earlier.

The banks are suspending foreclosures on owner-occupied homes; Fannie Mae is suspending foreclosure sales and evictions for occupied properties; and Freddie Mac is suspending foreclosure sales and evictions on properties with up to four units.

Excerpts from Commentary by Mike Parker, MISMedia

RISMEDIA, February 20, 2009-”Those who do not study history are condemned to repeat it.”  

I [Mike Parker] lived through President James Earl Carter, 21% prime interest rates, 20% inflation, Paul Volker and his attempt to strangle inflation by strangling the money supply, and that famous “WIN (Whip Inflation NOW!)” button the White House handed out. The period I am referring to was in the 1970s and early 1980s, and it effectively reduced the purchasing power and the true value of the dollar forever.

…there can be no debate that the trillions of dollars about to be pumped into the economy-while they will save us-will also bring inflation back; unless-of course-all that stuff about M1 and the money supply, and all those pronouncements by Paul Volcker, then-Chairman of the Fed, were mistaken . Since Mr. Volcker has now returned in a quasi-official capacity to advise the President’s team, I’d guess we’re in for inflation, now, and part of his mission is to try to minimize it.

Whatever happens, the stage is set for inflation to come back with a vengeance.
Discounts abound, but prices of durable goods are increasing.

…when the money supply is increased by an amount equivalent to 20 or 30% of Gross Domestic Product or more - naturally or unnaturally, inflation must result. That means that prices of all fixed assets rise to keep pace with the devaluation of the currency.

Now, what is going to happen to home prices over the next few years?

A side effect to saving America’s economy will be a robust increase in inflation. I believe that Inflation will regain all the “value” we lost in housing over the past two years, and that it will regain it in five years or less. Simply put, to put the brakes on inflation, government must inhibit the recovery. The people in power aren’t going to do that. Inflation is a necessary evil compared to a full scale depression and an acceptable trade off for most of us. (And oil won’t stay at about $40 a barrel too long, either!)

Interest rates will never be this low again in our lifetimes. Home prices won’t be this low again in our lifetimes. This is the perfect storm economically, but it also the perfect time to buy a home;

This just happens to be the perfect confluence of opportunity and necessity: we must fix the economy and we’re going to, whatever it takes. Inflation is an unavoidable side effect. Buy that house this year!